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MBA Economists Forecast Record Purchase Volume Next Year
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Purchase
mortgage originations are expected to hit a new record high of $1.54 trillion
next year. That forecast, which would be an increase of 8.5 percent over the projected
total in 2020, was made at the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) virtual
2020 Annual Convention and Expo by Mike Fratantoni, Chief
Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology; Joel
Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting; and Marina
Walsh, CMB, Vice President of Industry Analysis. While purchase mortgages will gain ground,
the three say that, after a nearly 80 percent jump in refinance activity this
year, those originations are predicted to slow next year, decreasing by 46.3
percent to $946 billion. MBA expects that, with record-low mortgage
rates driving borrower demand, mortgage originations will total $3.18 trillion
in 2020 - the most since a total of $3.81 trillion in 2003. In 2021, mortgage
originations are expected to fall to around $2.49 trillion, which would still
be the second-highest total in the past 15 years. At $1.54 trillion, next
year's purchase originations would eclipse the previous all-time high of $1.51
trillion in 2005.
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