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Loan Performance Showed Only Minimal Stress in March

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

The strength of the housing industry at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020 served, to a certain extent, as a buffer as the COVID-19 pandemic began to hit in March. However, CoreLogic says that there were still some signs that month that loan performance was beginning to fray. The company's March Loan Performance Insights Report says the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due reached its highest level since 2013 as unemployment began to rise. The transition rate increased to 1.0 percent from 0.9 percent in March 2019. In January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current- to 30-day transition rate was 1.2 percent and it peaked in November 2008 at 2 percent. CoreLogic says those effects will probably continue to become more apparent over the next year - especially as home prices are forecasted to experience their first decline in 9 years in 2021.  

 

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